🔗 Share this article Moving from Reluctant Admiration to Disquiet: Russia Weighs Up the Fall of Maduro. A surprise raid on the capital under cover of darkness, culminating in the capture of the country's president. By the next morning, the intervening power announces its intention to govern for an indefinite period. That was the scenario Russia's president envisaged his full-scale invasion of Ukraine playing out in early 2022. In reality, it was Donald Trump who executed it in Venezuela, in a move labeled illegal internationally, whisking away the Kremlin's longtime partner Nicolás Maduro, who now faces trial in New York. Official Outrage and Private Thoughts Officially, Moscow's representatives have reacted with anger, condemning the attack as a blatant breach of international law and a worrying development. But behind the official statements, there is a feeling of grudging respect – and even jealousy – at the efficiency of a power grab that Moscow itself once planned, but failed to execute due to critical intelligence failures and stiff Ukrainian opposition. “The operation was carried out with precision,” noted the Kremlin-aligned online channel a popular military blog. “Most likely, this is precisely the way our 'military campaign' was meant to proceed: swift, dramatic and decisive. It’s hard to believe [Valery] Gerasimov expected to be engaged in combat for four years.” Such commentary have fed a atmosphere of soul-searching among hardline commentators, with some publicly wondering how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine turned into a long and bloody war. Olga Uskova, said she felt “shame” on behalf of her country given how brazen the US intervention seemed. “In the space of a day, the US detained Venezuela's leader and seemingly wrapped up his own 'special military operation,’” she stated. A Network Unravels For more than two decades, Venezuela worked to build a network of partners opposed to Washington – from Moscow and Beijing to Cuba and Iran – in the hope of forging a new axis capable of standing up to Washington. However, even with Moscow's top diplomat pledging support for the Caracas government as recently as late December, few serious analysts ever believed Moscow would come to his rescue. Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, seen other important partners lose influence or weaken sharply – from Syria's leader to an increasingly weakened Iran – exposing the constraints of the Kremlin's reach. “For Russia, the circumstances are profoundly awkward,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a key ally and fellow traveler, and the two leaders have longstanding ties, leaving Moscow with no option but to voice condemnation. Yet providing any real assistance to a country so distant is simply impossible – for practical and operational reasons.” Focus on the Main Front Analysts point to a deeper strategic consideration. Putin's priority, experts note, is Ukraine – and maintaining a productive dialogue with Trump on that issue greatly exceeds the destiny of Caracas. “The Russian and American leaders are presently engaged with a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a much larger strategic game with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a lesser priority,” the analyst concluded. Tangible Costs and New Threats Nevertheless, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a US-friendly government takes power in Caracas, US defense specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia. Those include S-300VM anti-aircraft systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025. Moscow has also provided billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered. A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is crude oil: American control over Venezuela's vast reserves could push global prices lower, endangering one of Russia's key revenue streams. “If our American 'friends' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.” A Dark Optimism Still, some in Moscow perceive a grim silver lining. The US seizure of Maduro, they contend, could strike a decisive blow to the rules-based international order and usher in a more nakedly power-based world order – one where might, rather than rules, determines results. “Team Trump is ruthless and pragmatic in advancing its national interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev approvingly. “Removing Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The principle of might makes right is clearly more powerful than ordinary justice.”
A surprise raid on the capital under cover of darkness, culminating in the capture of the country's president. By the next morning, the intervening power announces its intention to govern for an indefinite period. That was the scenario Russia's president envisaged his full-scale invasion of Ukraine playing out in early 2022. In reality, it was Donald Trump who executed it in Venezuela, in a move labeled illegal internationally, whisking away the Kremlin's longtime partner Nicolás Maduro, who now faces trial in New York. Official Outrage and Private Thoughts Officially, Moscow's representatives have reacted with anger, condemning the attack as a blatant breach of international law and a worrying development. But behind the official statements, there is a feeling of grudging respect – and even jealousy – at the efficiency of a power grab that Moscow itself once planned, but failed to execute due to critical intelligence failures and stiff Ukrainian opposition. “The operation was carried out with precision,” noted the Kremlin-aligned online channel a popular military blog. “Most likely, this is precisely the way our 'military campaign' was meant to proceed: swift, dramatic and decisive. It’s hard to believe [Valery] Gerasimov expected to be engaged in combat for four years.” Such commentary have fed a atmosphere of soul-searching among hardline commentators, with some publicly wondering how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine turned into a long and bloody war. Olga Uskova, said she felt “shame” on behalf of her country given how brazen the US intervention seemed. “In the space of a day, the US detained Venezuela's leader and seemingly wrapped up his own 'special military operation,’” she stated. A Network Unravels For more than two decades, Venezuela worked to build a network of partners opposed to Washington – from Moscow and Beijing to Cuba and Iran – in the hope of forging a new axis capable of standing up to Washington. However, even with Moscow's top diplomat pledging support for the Caracas government as recently as late December, few serious analysts ever believed Moscow would come to his rescue. Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, seen other important partners lose influence or weaken sharply – from Syria's leader to an increasingly weakened Iran – exposing the constraints of the Kremlin's reach. “For Russia, the circumstances are profoundly awkward,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a key ally and fellow traveler, and the two leaders have longstanding ties, leaving Moscow with no option but to voice condemnation. Yet providing any real assistance to a country so distant is simply impossible – for practical and operational reasons.” Focus on the Main Front Analysts point to a deeper strategic consideration. Putin's priority, experts note, is Ukraine – and maintaining a productive dialogue with Trump on that issue greatly exceeds the destiny of Caracas. “The Russian and American leaders are presently engaged with a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a much larger strategic game with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a lesser priority,” the analyst concluded. Tangible Costs and New Threats Nevertheless, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a US-friendly government takes power in Caracas, US defense specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia. Those include S-300VM anti-aircraft systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025. Moscow has also provided billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered. A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is crude oil: American control over Venezuela's vast reserves could push global prices lower, endangering one of Russia's key revenue streams. “If our American 'friends' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.” A Dark Optimism Still, some in Moscow perceive a grim silver lining. The US seizure of Maduro, they contend, could strike a decisive blow to the rules-based international order and usher in a more nakedly power-based world order – one where might, rather than rules, determines results. “Team Trump is ruthless and pragmatic in advancing its national interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev approvingly. “Removing Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The principle of might makes right is clearly more powerful than ordinary justice.”