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Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple script. It commonly functions as a kind of mea culpa. Our apologies we underestimated your team in our pre-campaign forecasts.

On paper, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who oversaw the most dramatic turnaround is handed the award. However, it fuels an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding superior leadership or merely the most shocking upset.

However this year's competition is distinctly unique. The list of nominees is remarkably talented. It has been the season of comebacks. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent division winners fading and longtime strugglers improving collectively. In an ordinary season, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the clear favorite. But in this turbulent and fun season, he's competing with five other elite candidates.

Here is how the ideal vote should look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by quarterbacks. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you fix a quarterback, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. In the right ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his special talent. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a brief surge – it's sustained excellence. Under his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, far less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the system rather than freelancing. It is an attack designed entirely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that springs wide receiver targets everywhere. The QB has capitalized. And when easy reads weren't there, he's been able to create big plays from broken plays.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a defined offensive vision. Virtually every decision – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. That's rare for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer yet for a leader who entered the building with the level of pressure he did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, he has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme wizard but the type of culture builder that can inject new life into an franchise.

During a normal year, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. But the current isn't a normal year!

Where his candidacy comes a bit unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. With a few bounces of the ball, the team would be two wins behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is in place for sustained winning. But Johnson falls short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has engineered a rapid resurgence. During the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall football of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more notably, Coen has excelled at the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a guarantee following his early public introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the perfect coaching blend of new ideas and experience, Coen trusted newbies. From the leader himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That kind of setup is intriguing in theory, but frequently fails in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is learning a new job on the fly. But he has managed to bring the entire group and everything together.

After an initial hot beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse caused the Jags stumbling again. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. He did not. Instead, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive answers and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen recentered the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. He receives the tiniest deduction in the standings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year case has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a new signal-caller and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator might have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the season, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has cooled off since that time, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him just a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still